AGP Executive Report

Digital Finance: Uganda’s mobile-money leaders warn that fraud, network outages and high transaction costs are eroding trust in services used for billions of transactions each year. M-KOPA, which operates in Uganda, says it reached 10 million customers across five African markets and recorded $600 million in 2025 revenue. Fuel and Industry: Government says fuel prices reflect global costs, taxes and shilling depreciation; the currency’s recent slide added an estimated Shs300 per litre, while higher excise duty added Shs200. Rising fuel and transport costs are also weighing on private-sector growth. Investment: Uganda has cleared wealthy and professional investors to access Dangote Refinery’s $1.6 billion IPO, with the offer closing October 13. Separately, the government has handed 60 acres to DEVKI for iron-ore mining in Rubanda, signalling fresh interest in local mineral development. Mining Finance: Equity Bank says it is targeting financing and equipment for small-scale miners, many of whom lack the paperwork needed for conventional loans.

Railway Corridor: Uganda Railways Corporation will begin clearing illegal structures from its reserve on October 12 and cancel irregular titles, a move aimed at reducing derailments and opening corridors for network modernisation. Mining and Value Addition: Government has handed 60 acres to DEVKI Steel Mills for iron ore mining in Rubanda. The project is expected to advance local mineral processing, though compensation for affected residents remains underway. Investment Climate: The Netherlands remains a major source of foreign investment, with more than 200 Dutch-affiliated firms operating in Uganda across sectors including agribusiness, renewable energy and logistics. Investors have raised concerns about taxation and policy predictability in talks with the State House Investors Protection Unit. Business Conduct: Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa urged firms to improve tax compliance and transparency, arguing a broader tax base could fund infrastructure and public services without relying on new taxes. Agriculture: Uganda’s target to irrigate 1.5 million hectares by 2040 faces funding, coordination and monitoring hurdles, while Mukono leaders are promoting coffee and cocoa farming and improved production methods.

Business Climate: Uganda’s private sector remained in expansion in September, but growth slowed to 53 from 55 in August as fuel, transport and logistics costs rose, payments lagged and supply chains stretched. Currency Pressure: The shilling neared Shs4,000 to the dollar. The Bank of Uganda cited global conditions, higher oil import costs and strong demand for foreign currency—pressures that can raise costs for businesses and consumers. Tax & Investment: Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa urged businesses to pay taxes and act transparently, saying stronger compliance could help fund roads, power and water. He also called for a fair, predictable business environment. Trade & Production: Ugandan fresh-produce exporters warn that limited cargo space and fewer direct routes from Entebbe can delay shipments and erode the quality of perishables. Meanwhile, a new high-voltage connection has cleared the way for Dei BioPharma’s full-scale operations in Kamuli. Value Addition: President Museveni backed value addition as Uganda pursues its $500 billion economy target by 2040.

Climate Action Push: Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa told MPs to stop treating climate change as talk and instead use legislation, budgeting and oversight to prevent recurring disasters. Disaster Risk Resettlement: Cabinet approved Shs62bn to relocate 1,423 Mount Elgon households in landslide hotspots, with Shs18m each for land and housing. Energy Security & Accountability: Uganda’s first terrorism conviction tied to power vandalism saw Ibrah Muwonge sentenced to 10 years for terrorism and 5 for terror financing after attacks destroyed 14 high-voltage pylons, disrupting water, health and industry. Industrial Policy & Production: At the 32nd Uganda International Trade Fair, President Museveni urged a shift from exporting raw materials to agro-processing, feeds, ethanol, paper, steel and copper processing. Agri-Industry & Poultry: De Heus launched a new complete broiler feed in Kampala aimed at improving feed costs and flock growth. Tourism Momentum: Uganda reported 1.64m international arrivals and $1.62bn receipts in 2025, with uneven recovery across segments. Regional Trade & Logistics: Uganda eyes Dar es Salaam as a second sea route as Tanzania expands port capacity and rail plans progress. Ebola Screening Warning: Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case linked to DRC travel, spotlighting airport screening and surveillance gaps that could affect regional movement. Finance for Industry: Uganda Development Bank commissioned its new UDB Tower to strengthen its development finance mandate. Cross-Border Capital Markets: CMA Uganda approved marketing Dangote refinery shares locally under tight rules for institutions and high-net-worth investors.

Diaspora Finance Push: Equity Bank urged Ugandans abroad to shift from remitting only for consumption to investing in property, agribusiness and other income-generating assets, pitching “From Remitting to Investing” as a wealth-building route. Digital Payments Competition: Airtel Money plans a Mastercard virtual card in Uganda (already launched in parts of the region), aiming to compete with M-Pesa GlobalPay and deepen cross-border e-commerce payments. Climate & Food Systems: A UN-backed push highlights how rotting food waste drives methane and worsens climate change, calling for faster diversion of organics from landfills and better meal planning. Fuel Price Pressure: Economists urged government action to stabilize rising fuel prices, warning import-dependent economies could face broad economic damage if costs keep climbing. Power & Industry Support: UEDCL invested over Shs240m in Butebo to extend grid power and install transformers for a mini-industrial park and agro-processing activity. Ebola Cross-Border Risk: Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case linked to DRC travel, underscoring the need for regional surveillance and fast contact tracing. Coffee Value Capture: A Uganda coffee value-add argument calls for capturing more value beyond roasting—into branding, machines and market access—via targeted investment and market positioning. Governance & Accountability: Uganda’s Consul General in Mombasa, Herbert Kiguli, was remanded over alleged Shs494m loss tied to requisitions while he served in MAAIF.

Digital Accountability: Parliament’s digital number plate probe escalated as CID arrested two officials after conflicting pricing breakdowns and a witness admitted he lied under oath; lawmakers are now probing whether the Shs714,300 fee and promised security benefits match what was delivered. Anti-Corruption in Agriculture: Uganda’s Consul General in Mombasa, Ambassador Herbert Kiguli, was remanded to Luzira Prison over alleged sh494m loss linked to requisitions signed while he served at MAAIF; bail hearing set for Oct 7. Cancer Care Capacity: Uganda Cancer Institute reported radiotherapy expansion to eight operational machines, but delays persist amid patient surges and staffing gaps, with plans for a PET centre to improve diagnosis. Skills for Industry: Government-aided vocational institutions are still training with outdated equipment, limiting hands-on readiness for modern manufacturing and industrial workplaces. Education Funding Pressure: PTA-funded teachers are being withdrawn in some government-aided schools after enforcement against compulsory charges, worsening staffing shortages and increasing teacher workloads. Climate & Food Systems: UN warns rotting food waste drives up to 10% of global greenhouse gases, far above aviation, pushing urgency for waste reduction and better post-harvest handling.

Tenfold Growth Execution: Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy is framed as an “economic operating system” that must move beyond ideas to sustained value-adding outcomes, with implementation the make-or-break issue. Anti-Corruption & Agriculture Finance: MAAIF-linked Bukalasa Agricultural College funds alleged in a Shs494m loss case land Uganda’s Consul General in Mombasa, Amb. Herbert Kiguli, in Luzira as he seeks bail. Mining Finance Inclusion: Equity Bank doubles down on artisanal and small-scale miners, pushing financial literacy, asset financing and safer practices as Uganda’s mineral wealth conference gathers over 1,500 delegates. Power for Industry: UEDCL extends electricity to schools and rural industries in Butebo and sets new Q4 tariffs, with higher rates for heavy users—key for manufacturers planning costs. Shilling Pressure: The shilling hits a record low as seasonal dollar demand and import positioning strain forex, with Bank of Uganda staying mostly sidelined. Digital Number Plates Probe: Parliament’s inquiry escalates with arrests over unclear pricing and false testimony, raising questions about whether the tech infrastructure delivers value. Coffee Compliance Headache: Slow coffee farmer registration under EU deforestation rules threatens market access as the second deadline nears. Forest Loss in Maruzi: Residents decry massive tree cutting for charcoal in Maruzi Central Forest Reserve, calling for accountability. Industrial Fuel Continuity: Vivo Energy installs bulk fuel systems at Kiira Motors and WIH Cement to cut supply interruptions for production. Education Restored in Busia: Wagagai Mining re-commissioned Alupe Primary School after mining disruptions, investing in classrooms and facilities. Counterfeit Products Warning: UNBS and partners warn counterfeit and substandard goods may dominate the market, pushing health and consumer-safety risks.

Energy & Industry: Dei BioPharma’s Kamuli starch factory is set for full-scale operations after Uganda secured a high-voltage power connection, a move aimed at stabilising supply for pharmaceutical-grade starch and industrial sugars. Oil & Regional Value Chains: A new Uganda oil milestone is gaining momentum as “Pearl Sweet” crude moves toward market via the heated pipeline system, with first commercial oil now expected in 2027—shifting Uganda from importer to producer. Power Reliability for Manufacturing: UEDCL is pushing upgrades and a nationwide drive to cut Greater Kampala power interruptions, targeting thousands of customers—key for keeping industrial machines running. Agribusiness Finance: Rural farmers still struggle to access the Agricultural Credit Facility despite over Shs1.5tn disbursed since 2009, with funds concentrated in major centres and many farmers unaware of how to apply. Coffee Exports & Processing: Uganda has joined the Swiss Coffee Trade Association to deepen market access and value addition, while regional stakeholders continue calling for stronger coffee policy and investment. Digital Transport & Policing: Parliament’s infrastructure committee says digital number plates can track vehicles, following demonstrations and concerns over security and functionality. Public Safety & Accountability: KCCA has been ordered to pay Shs123.9m after a vendor’s death in the Nakivubo channel, highlighting enforcement safety gaps. Security: Police deployed the flying squad in Kazo after a spate of killings, adding patrols and coordination to curb violence and theft.

East African Refining Push: President Museveni backed Aliko Dangote’s Kenya refinery plan but said Uganda won’t commit money until the status of a proposed Tanga refinery in Tanzania is clarified, as the region races to cut fuel imports. Industrial Power for Agro-Processing: A power boost is putting Kamuli’s cassava plant on course for full-scale production, while government and UEDCL move to stabilise electricity for factories. Agribusiness Finance Gap: Despite over Shs1.5tn disbursed under the Agricultural Credit Facility since 2009, rural farmers still struggle to access it—only 15,300 of 23,000 applications had been approved and disbursed by June 30. Digital Transport Oversight: MPs tested Uganda’s digital number plate tracking system and reported a high recovery rate of stolen vehicles, pushing for further improvements. Trade & Market Signals: Kenya’s exports to the US overtook Uganda’s after AGOA preferential access was restored, with manufacturers citing renewed buyer demand. SME Green Jobs: Over 50 SMEs completed green jobs bootcamps to strengthen Uganda’s green and circular economy. Cattle & Dairy Upgrade: NAGRC&DB is boosting Ankole dairy yields without losing breed identity, with milk output rising sharply at its ranch.

Textiles Expansion: Fine Spinners Uganda Limited says it has invested US$5m in new textile machinery, targeting the DRC, Zambia and Ethiopia, with capacity expected to rise by up to 40%. Energy & Industry: Uganda’s NSSF stayed out of Kenya Pipeline Company’s IPO, citing “overvalued” pricing, while continuing to rebalance its portfolio across regional listed firms. Tax & Pharma: Emmanuel Katongole has resigned as URA board chairman after six months, pointing to mounting demands at Quality Chemical Industries and other leadership roles. Digital Infrastructure: Canalbox is pushing to grow Uganda’s fixed broadband customer base after investing up to US$60m, betting on affordability and shared home connectivity. Construction & Risk: Government has screened about 5,000 Kampala buildings for earthquake safety and will extend the audit to the wider Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area. Water Last-Mile: Despite improved national safe-water access, MPs warn thousands of villages still lack reliable improved sources, calling for better design and maintenance. Regional Trade Policy: Nigeria urged African states to put trade and economic cooperation at the centre of Pan-African diplomacy, backing AfCFTA and corridor investment. Fuel Cost Pressure: Diesel prices are driving up food and transport costs, with diesel inflation at 42.5% year-on-year.

Gold Fraud Case: A Canada-based pastor, Didier Borromee Bitome Kifoueti, pleaded guilty in Kampala to obtaining about $600,000 (UGX2.3bn) through a bogus gold deal, with co-accused denying charges. Urban Planning & Infrastructure: Egypt’s PM Mostafa Madbouly told the Alamein Africa Forum that Africa must turn rapid urbanisation into industrial growth, citing Egypt’s “fourth-generation cities” and cross-border know-how. Regional Trade Diplomacy: Nigeria urged African states to put trade and economic cooperation at the centre of Pan-African diplomacy, arguing partnerships last only on shared economic interests. Water Last-Mile Gap: Uganda’s safe-water access rose to 73.6%, but MPs warn 12,000+ villages still lack improved sources, with health and livelihoods hit. Earthquake Readiness: Uganda screened about 5,000 Kampala buildings for seismic vulnerability, with the audit set to expand across Greater Kampala. Tax Administration Shake-up: Emmanuel Katongole resigned as URA board chair after six months, as the authority faces pressure to boost domestic revenue. Energy & Food Costs: Diesel inflation hit 42.5%, pushing up transport and food prices across Uganda’s supply chain. Lamu Refinery Momentum: Kenya’s Lamu refinery project continues to draw regional investment attention, with claims it could reshape East Africa’s energy and industrial future.

Earthquake Readiness: Uganda’s National Building Review Board says it has screened 5,000 buildings in Kampala for seismic vulnerability under a Rapid Visual Screening programme, with the next phase set for Kira, Wakiso, Entebbe, parts of Greater Kampala and beyond. Forestry & Schools: Equity Bank launches the Equity Green Schools Programme, targeting 200,000 trees planted and nurtured in schools by 2027, starting with 3,000 trees at Nakanyonyi SSS. Power Reliability: UEDCL rolls out major network upgrades and a nationwide stakeholder engagement drive to cut blackouts for 80,000+ customers in Greater Kampala, including transformer and line capacity interventions. Digital Transport Oversight: MPs validate that the Digital Number Plate System can track and recover stolen vehicles (337/375), shifting focus to implementation costs and production efficiency. Mining Enforcement: Police in Kanungu arrest six suspects over illegal gold mining along riverbanks, citing unlicensed operations and environmental damage. Agribusiness & Trade: Kagadi farmers pass by-laws to curb coffee theft, while EU coffee imports hit €18.7bn in 2025—Uganda ranks third among extra-EU suppliers. Regional Industry Finance: Afreximbank says it has invested about $15bn in Dangote Group since 2015 and backs the $16bn Lamu refinery expected to process 700,000 bpd and create 60,000 jobs. Water & Health Support: NCBA Bank hands over 50 household water filters to Kasenyi families to improve safe drinking water access.

Rail & Logistics: Uganda is moving to adopt European rail control and signalling for the Malaba–Kampala SGR, with Parliament told proposals include ERTMS and ETCS Level 2. Regional Deal-Making: Heads of state and business leaders gather in Egypt’s Alamein for the inaugural Alamein Africa Forum, with focus on infrastructure, critical minerals, digital innovation and trade. Power Reliability: UEDCL has launched a nationwide engagement drive to tackle Greater Kampala blackouts, including transformer upgrades and line splitting to ease strain on customers in areas like Kira. Electric Mobility: Kiira Motors and Vivo Energy Uganda partner to expand charging infrastructure for electric buses in Kampala and Jinja. Digital Plates Oversight: MPs inspected the Digital Number Plate system at Naguru and confirmed live tracking works, shifting attention to how to improve implementation efficiency and costs. Tourism & Jobs: Government targets $5bn tourism receipts by 2030, needing visitors to stay longer and spend more. Agribusiness Security: Kagadi farmers pass by-laws to curb coffee theft, including penalties for stealing and buying immature coffee. Public Health & Safety: NDA warns against an illegal “viagra-powered” energy drink found with undeclared sildenafil. Conservation & Tourism: UWA and WCS sign a 10-year co-management deal for Queen Elizabeth’s Ishasha lions sector, aiming to revive tourism and biodiversity management.

Oil & Industry: Aliko Dangote has dismissed Kenya’s refinery protests, saying the Lamu project will still be ready by 2030, while offering East African governments a combined 30% stake in the $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery. Regional Energy Integration: Tanzania and Uganda have advanced refined-fuel infrastructure planning in Tanga, handing a project site to a consultant for feasibility work to cut import dependence. Local Manufacturing Finance: Exim Bank Uganda backed Yangtze Industry’s expansion with financing for a new glue production facility at the Sino-Uganda Mbale Industrial Park, as manufacturing growth continues. Urban Planning & Compliance: KCCA demolished buildings in Nakasero and Kololo over alleged planning breaches, pushing enforcement in Kampala’s development corridors. Water & Standards: Uganda’s water utilities are losing up to Shs6bn through non-revenue water, with substandard meters driving the push for mandatory meter standards. Tourism & Digital Push: Uganda is turning to AI and digital tools to boost tourism competitiveness, with stakeholders reviewing how to improve marketing, visitor experience and service delivery.

East African Energy Push: Aliko Dangote broke ground in Lamu on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery meant to cut fuel imports and deepen regional industrialisation, with leaders including Uganda’s Museveni and Kenya’s Ruto backing the project. Regional Politics & Integration: Ruto played down refinery “rivalry” with Uganda and Tanzania, saying East Africa’s demand can support multiple plants, while Museveni again urged an East African political federation to remove barriers to shared growth. Court & Land Tensions: In Kenya, 133 residents sued to stop the Lamu refinery, arguing it threatens ancestral land and livelihoods, with a court order holding the status quo until mid-October. Uganda Industrial Climate: KCCA demolished two buildings in Nakasero and Kololo over alleged planning breaches, a reminder that industrial expansion still depends on enforcement. Tourism Tech Upgrade: Uganda is turning to AI and digital tools to boost tourism marketing, visitor experience and data-driven planning. Agriculture Protection: Eastern Africa met in Entebbe to strengthen cross-border control of migratory pests, stressing early warning and rapid response to protect crops and food security. Skills for Industry: Uganda and Chinese partners urged more practical vocational training to supply manpower for industrial parks and manufacturing. Health & Access: A new HIV prevention injectable (lenacapavir) is hailed as a breakthrough, but access questions remain as funding tightens. Trade & Logistics: Rwanda received its first fuel shipment via Kenya’s Mombasa corridor under a new framework, signalling deeper energy and logistics integration.

East Africa Industrial Push: Uganda’s President Museveni joined regional leaders at the groundbreaking of Dangote’s $16bn East Africa Petroleum Refinery in Lamu, Kenya—an integrated complex targeting 700,000 barrels per day and completion in about 40 months, with claims of 60,000 construction jobs and downstream petrochemicals. Courtroom Roadblocks: The project’s start has been challenged by a land-rights petition from Lamu residents, while the African Energy Chamber backs Dangote and warns against delays from litigation. Regional Fuel Logistics: Kenya has also activated a new route for Rwanda’s refined fuel imports via Mombasa, receiving a first 40,000-tonne diesel and petrol consignment. Uganda’s Downstream Stance: Museveni backed Lamu but said Uganda will only invest after clarifying its own planned “small refinery” path. Oversight & Industry Policy: Parliament ordered an audit of the delayed Lubowa hospital project, while Uganda renewed focus on mining value addition and UDB urged Eastern Uganda tourism players to use patient capital. Health Manufacturing: Minister Bahati inspected Microhaem Scientifics as Uganda pushes import substitution in medical supplies. Transport Tech: Parliament heard digital number plate rollout updates, including backlog clearance and faster fitment times.