AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas: Uganda’s $4 billion Hoima refinery is targeting a February 2027 investment decision, but key commercial agreements, engineering work and plans to transport oversized equipment remain outstanding. Agriculture & Processing: NARO has unveiled three purple-fleshed sweet potato varieties for better nutrition and food security; the crops could also be processed into flour, biscuits, crisps and beverages. Currency & Business: Bank of Uganda Governor Michael Atingi-Ego says the shilling’s slide reflects a wider current-account deficit and weaker portfolio inflows, not the sovereignty law. The central bank has raised its rate to 12%, while traders warn dollar costs are squeezing businesses. Industrial Power: UEDCL has invested Shs240 million in Butebo, including a 100kVA transformer to supply a planned mini-industrial park and support agro-processing. Health Services: Mauritius-based C-Care has acquired Kampala’s Roswell Hospital, expanding its Uganda network to six hospitals and 17 clinics.

Agro-Processing: NARO has released three purple-fleshed sweet potato varieties that can be processed into flour, biscuits, crisps and beverages, opening new options for farmers and food businesses. Climate Readiness: Government is investing Shs500 million in weather stations and flood alerts across 11 eastern districts to help protect farms, livestock and communities. Coffee Industry: Ugandan roasters are targeting up to Shs5 billion in financing to grow businesses, boost local consumption and reach export markets. Trade and Logistics: Maersk warns that heavy rains and flooding could disrupt East African cargo routes and port access through December. Uganda is also championing a single African digital market to make cross-border sales easier for businesses. Infrastructure: The World Bank says bureaucracy is delaying Uganda’s health, water, energy and other projects, while offering support for an economic zone along the planned standard-gauge railway corridor. Business Costs: Bank of Uganda raised its policy rate to 12% and sold about $30 million to steady the shilling, moves that could affect borrowing costs and investment.

Budget Priorities: Government released Shs21.82 trillion for Q2 of FY2026/27, including Shs224.5 billion for agro-industrialisation, Shs46.7 billion for oil and mineral development, and Shs372.9 billion for science, technology and connectivity. Productive Finance: I&M Bank has expanded financing for pickups and tractors, with monthly payments of Shs4.6 million and Shs2.3 million respectively, to help businesses invest without tying up working capital. Trade and Value Addition: Uganda and Oman signed a business-chamber pact covering agriculture, mining and tourism. The opportunity is substantial: Uganda exported just $7.68 million to Oman in 2025, against bilateral trade of about $422 million. Local Supply Chains: Nile Breweries marks 75 years, reporting that more than 98% of its raw materials are sourced locally and that it supports about 25,000 farmers. Energy Policy: Parliament paused enforcement of the charcoal ban until October 21, giving government time to explain how households can access affordable alternatives. Credit Costs: Bank of Uganda’s rate hike to 12% is raising concern about the cost of borrowing for businesses.

Monetary Policy: Bank of Uganda raised its policy rate to 12% to curb shilling weakness and inflation, but economists warn higher borrowing costs could squeeze businesses and jobs. Local Manufacturing: Nile Breweries says it sources more than 98% of its raw materials locally, spending over UGX156 billion a year and supporting about 25,000 farmers. Trade & Logistics: Uganda wants to grow its annual exports to South Sudan beyond $700 million by easing border procedures and improving road security. Maersk has also warned that heavy rains could disrupt regional cargo flows and delay shipments. Clean Energy: Ugandan innovators and development partners are promoting papyrus briquettes as a source of affordable cooking fuel, jobs and wetland protection. Green Finance: Equity Bank Uganda has unveiled UGX37.6 billion in climate loans to support projects including renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture and clean cooking.

Monetary Policy: Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark rate to 12% to curb inflation and shilling pressure, while lowering its 2026/27 growth forecast. The shilling rebounded after the move, but higher borrowing costs could weigh on businesses. Regional Trade: Uganda and Kenya agreed to remove remaining barriers to goods movement, while Uganda and South Sudan signed a trade MoU to tackle delays and costs. Kampala says exports to South Sudan have reached $700 million a year. Energy: Parliament suspended enforcement of the charcoal trade ban pending a government review of alternatives, after traders reported billions of shillings in stranded stock and households faced limited affordable cooking options. Infrastructure: Government plans a Shs175 billion advance to support work on the Kampala–Hoima highway, including reconstruction of Kafu Bridge. Value Addition: President Museveni urged the EU to invest in local processing of African raw materials, arguing that manufacturing products such as coffee locally can create jobs and capture more value.

Monetary Policy: The Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark rate to 12% from 9.75% as a weak shilling and higher oil prices stoke inflation, forecast at 7–7.5% over the next year. Businesses may face costlier borrowing just as imported inputs get more expensive. Oil and Gas: Uganda National Oil Company says first oil is expected by June 2027, with the East African Crude Oil Pipeline 92% complete and a final investment decision on the domestic refinery planned for February. Minerals: At African Mining Week, Energy Minister Monica Musenero called for investment and regional cooperation to capture more value from minerals through processing and industry, not extraction alone. Agriculture: NARO has established a 200-acre cassava demonstration and multiplication site in Karamoja to expand access to drought-resilient planting material. Meanwhile, research in Busoga warns that sugarcane’s rapid expansion has not ended hunger for farming families. Enterprise: FAO’s new six-month programme will help 54 forestry and wood-based businesses improve investment readiness and access finance. Agro-processing: Uganda urged Italian investors to establish coffee-processing facilities locally, aiming to raise export earnings and create jobs.

Currency and Costs: Bank of Uganda’s foreign-exchange reserves rose to $6.7 billion in the year to June, but businesses still face higher costs: petrol reached about Shs7,000 a litre as the shilling weakened in recent months. Manufacturing: Nile Breweries says it sources over 98% of its raw materials locally, works with about 25,000 farmers and spends Shs156 billion a year on local procurement as it marks 75 years in Uganda. Trade and Investment: Uganda is courting Thai investors in agro-processing, light manufacturing, mining and tourism, while banks have signalled readiness to finance mining projects. Transport: Uganda Railways’ goods sheds, once key cargo hubs, are now underused; an Auditor General’s review found Kampala’s inland container depot dilapidated and non-functional, costing government potential revenue. Minerals: Gold exports have grown sharply, strengthening the case for local processing and value addition.

Investment: Uganda is courting Thai investors in agro-processing, manufacturing, minerals and technology, offering industrial parks and tax incentives as it targets a $500 billion economy by 2040. Minerals & Energy: Cabinet plans to boost lithium mining and local battery production to cut the cost of solar-powered irrigation, alongside repairs to existing irrigation schemes. Exports: Gold has overtaken coffee as Uganda’s leading export, with monthly shipments rising to $788 million in July, strengthening its role as a major source of foreign exchange. Regional Trade: Trade with South Sudan has reached an estimated $700 million, but border delays and infrastructure and regulatory hurdles continue to raise costs for businesses. Infrastructure: Government will advance Shs175 billion to speed up work on the Hoima–Busunju road, including the Kafu Bridge; the project is about 40% complete.

Farm Energy: With unreliable rains threatening harvests, Uganda is weighing solar irrigation, but affordability, water access and delivery will determine whether smallholders benefit. ACODE is urging dedicated budget funding for solar in agricultural value chains. Fuel & Roads: Pump prices have reached Shs6,800–7,000 a litre as diesel supply pressures, shilling depreciation and taxes squeeze businesses. A bitumen shortage is also holding up road surfacing, with KCCA projects reported 68–70% complete. Industrial Investment: NEC told Parliament it has nine joint ventures and a partnership spanning manufacturing, vehicles, agriculture and pharmaceuticals. NWSC is also seeking a partnership with Danish firm Grundfos to make pumps and spare parts locally. Export Trade: Denmark has awarded HortiFresh US$300,000 to improve export compliance and test lower-cost sea freight for avocados and other produce. Mining: A new report flags an Shs11.7 trillion gap in Uganda’s mineral export figures, raising questions about tracking and value captured from the sector. Tourism: Uganda is courting investors for hotels, eco-lodges and transport, while a new events conference aims to bring more high-value celebrations and business to the tourism supply chain.

Regional Tourism: Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda are planning a joint AFCON 2027 visa to ease fan travel and create opportunities for hotels, tour operators and transport firms. Horticulture Exports: Denmark’s $300,000 grant will help Ugandan produce exporters meet market standards and test sea freight as a lower-cost alternative to air transport. Infrastructure: Bitumen shortages are holding up road surfacing, putting KCCA’s December completion target at risk; the proposed Lumino–Mulwanda border link also needs Uganda to pave its remaining 12 kilometres. Local Manufacturing: NWSC is seeking a partnership with Grundfos and NEC to make water pumps and spare parts in Uganda, cutting import delays and potentially supplying regional utilities. Industrial Capacity: Manufacturers still face unreliable supplies of agricultural raw materials and a shortage of practical skills, challenges highlighted at the Uganda International Trade Fair. Trade Links: Uganda’s national chamber and Oman’s chamber signed an MoU to promote investment and business partnerships, including in agriculture, agro-processing and mining.

Energy Investment: China’s Jinguan Electric says it has signed a framework deal worth up to $296 million to build 50 solar, storage and EV-charging stations across Africa. Spiro Mobility, which operates in Uganda and six other African countries, is its partner. Mineral Trade: Uganda’s latest UGEITI report shows a striking mismatch: one section puts mineral exports at Shs11.8 trillion, while another records just Shs119.2 billion, raising concerns over trade data, taxation and public revenue. Manufacturing: NWSC chief Silver Mugisha wants Danish firm Grundfos to partner with National Enterprise Corporation to make pumps and spare parts in Uganda, potentially supplying utilities across Africa. Business Climate: The shilling has breached Shs4,100 to the dollar, pushing diesel above Shs7,100 a litre and adding pressure on manufacturers and other importers. Nigerian investors are also exploring opportunities in Uganda, including cement, pharmaceuticals and food processing. Industrial Finance: Government is pushing reforms at Uganda Development Bank, including faster loan decisions and stronger support for manufacturing as the bank’s capitalisation reaches Shs2 trillion.

Currency and Fuel Costs: The shilling has fallen past Shs4,100 to the dollar, pushing diesel above Shs7,100 a litre and raising costs for manufacturers and importers. New Investment: Nigerian investors are exploring opportunities in cement, pharmaceuticals, fish processing, beef and palm oil as Uganda and Nigeria advance a trade framework. Development Finance: Government wants Uganda Development Bank to cut its 45-day loan processing time and increase support for manufacturing, as its capital reaches Shs2 trillion. Fuel Standards: Eastern Uganda accounted for 58 of 123 fuel stations found non-compliant in August, according to UNBS. Water Sector: Uganda will host the International Water Association’s 2027 congress, expected to draw more than 3,000 delegates. Manufacturing: Steel & Tube won two awards at the Uganda International Trade Fair, including best exhibitor in building and construction.

Trade: Uganda ranked among the fastest-growing least-developed-country traders in the first half of 2026, with exports up 35%—led by gold—and imports up 26%, the WTO reported. Manufacturing & Mining: Steel & Tube won two awards at the Uganda International Trade Fair, where Movit Africa also took top honours. Government has handed DEVKI 60 acres in Rubanda for iron ore mining, a potential boost to local value addition. Investment: Vivo Energy doubled fuelling points at its Jinja Shell station and expanded retail and vehicle services. Agriculture: Government allocated Shs7.7b to NARO and Soroti University to support women’s agribusiness. Infrastructure & Costs: Apac road maintenance is stalled, with more than Shs250m sitting idle after MPs missed meetings to form a roads committee. Meanwhile, Kampala petrol prices reached Shs6,700–6,900 a litre and diesel up to Shs7,018, adding pressure on businesses and transport costs.

Manufacturing: Steel & Tube won two awards at the Uganda International Trade Fair, where local manufacturers took centre stage. Energy and Transport: Vivo Energy doubled fuelling points at its Jinja Shell Amber Court station, while rising fuel prices are squeezing households and businesses; vehicle experts urged drivers to cut unnecessary trips and use fuel efficiently. Climate Investment: Uganda is turning to private capital and carbon markets to help meet an estimated $28.1 billion climate-finance need by 2030, with investment framed as a way to support production, jobs and community incomes. Mining: Government has handed DEVKI 60 acres for iron ore mining in Rubanda, a potential boost to domestic industrial supply. Skills: Government and manufacturers are pushing stronger education-industry partnerships to train workers for the changing needs of production.

Housing & Construction: Uganda’s housing deficit stands at about 2.48 million units. Stakeholders are calling for affordable finance, better urban planning and stronger private-sector delivery. Skills for Industry: Government wants manufacturers more involved in training, to help close the skills gap and prepare workers for changing industry needs. Local Manufacturing: Movit Africa took top exhibitor honours at the Uganda International Trade Fair, highlighting the growth of local brands and their regional reach. Energy & Costs: Museveni rejected using forex reserves to support the shilling as fuel prices rise, urging greater reliance on locally made goods. Mining & Agribusiness: Government handed DEVKI 60 acres for iron-ore mining in Rubanda, while NARO and Soroti University received Shs7.7 billion to boost women’s agribusiness. Regional Refining: Engineers India won a contract worth more than $450 million to manage engineering and project services for Dangote’s proposed refinery in Kenya, planned to supply East African markets.

Manufacturing: Movit Africa won Best Overall Exhibitor at the Uganda International Trade Fair, showcasing the growth of local brands and production. Digital Finance: MTN MoMo urged stronger partnerships, interoperability and AI to expand Uganda’s fintech sector. Fuel Costs: UNOC linked high pump prices to global supply disruptions, shilling depreciation and a new Shs200 duty, as MPs questioned the burden on households and businesses. Electric Mobility: ARC Ride’s 2025 revenue quadrupled to Shs560 million, driven by motorcycle sales and battery swapping, though expansion costs widened its losses. Mining: Government handed 60 acres to DEVKI for iron ore mining in Rubanda, advancing plans to develop local mineral resources. Agriculture: Ugandan researchers have developed a way to breed beetles that feed on invasive congress weed, which damages crops including maize, beans and bananas.